Justin Herbert Dynasty Value

Physically, Herbert checks every box. 236 pounds, a 4.68 forty, a 35.5-inch vertical, and one of the strongest arms in this draft class. Four years as Oregon's starter produced 10,541 passing yards across 43 games (245.1 per game), 95 touchdowns to 23 interceptions, and 560 rushing yards with 13 rushing touchdowns. The tools are obvious. The consistency is the problem. His completion percentage tells the story of a quarterback who never quite put it all together: 63.5% as a freshman, up to 67.5% as a sophomore, then a jarring regression to 59.4% in 2018 when Oregon's offensive line struggled, before climbing back to 66.8% in his senior year. That 2018 dip (29 touchdowns but 8 interceptions in 13 games) is the tape that worries evaluators. Herbert has the arm to make every throw on the field, but there were too many games at Oregon where the aggressiveness simply disappeared and the physical gifts went unused. A 4.1:1 career TD/INT ratio is solid, not spectacular, for a quarterback with this ceiling. R1.6 for a quarterback whose size, speed, and arm strength give him one of the highest physical ceilings in the class, paired with four years of tape that never consistently matched those tools.